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PRIVATE PAYROLLS LOST 3,000 JOBS IN SEPTEMBER AFTER LOSING 2,100 IN AUGUST; UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE TO 6.9%
Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. today released his office’s analysis and seasonal adjustment of August job numbers reported by the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“ New York City lost 5,000 private sector jobs in the past two months. In September, we lost 3,000 and in August, we lost 2,000,” he reported. “The September loss was offset by an increase in local-government jobs. Unemployment rose to 6.9 percent, from 6.7 percent in August.” These figures are seasonally adjusted.
The September job loss is a decline of only 0.1 percent (annualized rate) from August, seasonally adjusted. This compares with the corresponding increase of 0.9 percent for the nation.
The September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.9 percent was the lowest since October 2001, except for the August unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, which was the lowest since September 2001.
The City’s labor force rose by 28,200, seasonally adjusted, after having fallen by 17,300 in August. The number of unemployed rose by 8,300 to a seasonally adjusted 256,900, as the number of employed New York City residents rose to 3,459,800 in September, seasonally adjusted. The City's unemployment rate of 6.9 percent in September was 1.5 percentage points above the nation's.
The City’s Year-over-Year Monthly Lag behind U.S. in Job Creation Widens
The lag of City year-over-year monthly percentage job growth behind U.S. job growth widened again in September to 0.51 of a percentage point, after having narrowed in the previous three months. The City has lagged the nation in job creation since March 2001, with the gap opening up significantly in September 2001, as may be seen in Chart 1.
Chart 1. NYC and U.S. Show Positive Job Growth But NYC Still Lags U.S. in Year-over-Year Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs, January 2000 to Sept. 2004
Data Source: Computations by the NYC Comptroller's Office based on data from New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Y/Y = Year over Year.)
The numbers for Chart 1 are shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Year-over-Year Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs,
January 2003 to September 2004, U.S. and NYC
|
NYC Y/Y Change |
US Y/Y Change |
NYC - US Difference |
January 2003 |
-0.9% |
-0.3% |
-0.59% |
February |
-1.2% |
-0.3% |
-0.85% |
March |
-1.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.98% |
April |
-1.6% |
-0.4% |
-1.22% |
May |
-1.6% |
-0.4% |
-1.26% |
June |
-1.8% |
-0.4% |
-1.31% |
July |
-1.8% |
-0.4% |
-1.47% |
August |
-1.9% |
-0.4% |
-1.49% |
September |
-1.5% |
-0.3% |
-1.14% |
October |
-1.6% |
-0.2% |
-1.39% |
November |
-1.6% |
-0.2% |
-1.40% |
December |
-1.6% |
-0.1% |
-1.51% |
January 2004 |
-0.5% |
-0.0% |
-0.47% |
February |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.31% |
March |
0.0% |
0.5% |
-0.52% |
April |
0.4% |
0.9% |
-0.52% |
May |
0.4% |
1.0% |
-0.63% |
June |
0.9% |
1.1% |
-0.28% |
July |
1.1% |
1.3% |
-0.20% |
August |
1.2% |
1.3% |
-0.15% |
September |
0.9% |
1.4% |
-0.51% |
Source: Computations by the NYC Comptroller's Office based on data from New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Y/Y = Year over Year.)
Total Jobs Fell by 300 as City Net Hires Offset 3,000-Job Private Loss
Total jobs located in New York City, seasonally adjusted, fell by 300 in September compared with August, as local-government hiring more than offset a private-sector loss of 3,000 jobs. Local government jobs (i.e., jobs in City government and in independent local agencies like the MTA) rose by 3,100 in September, while Federal jobs fell by 400.
Within the private sector, three sectors showed seasonally adjusted job growth and three showed significant declines; one (construction) was unchanged and two (leisure and hospitality, which gained 100 jobs, and other services, which lost 200 jobs) were virtually unchanged. The growth areas, in order of number of new jobs, were: professional and business services, which grew by 2,300 jobs; financial activities, which grew by 1,600 jobs; and information services, which grew by 700 jobs.
On the down side, education and health services fell by 6,700 jobs; followed by trade, transportation and utilities, which fell by 400 jobs, and manufacturing, which fell by 300 jobs. This is shown in Chart 2.
Chart 2. Change in New York City Jobs by NAICS Category,
Sept.2004 Compared with August 2004, Seasonally Adjusted, ‘000, and SAAR
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, revised series based on NAICS job categories. The percent-change numbers in parentheses are annualized numbers based on month-to-month changes. SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate (in parentheses).
Since December 2000, New York City has lost 203,200 jobs, seasonally adjusted, of which 124,300 jobs (or about 61 percent) have been lost since September 2001.
City Unemployment Rate Increases to 6.9% in September
The City’s unemployment rate in September, seasonally adjusted, increased to 6.9 percent, from 6.7 percent in August. The number of unemployed New Yorkers, seasonally adjusted, increased by 8,300 in September, after having decreased by 30,400 in August. The number of employed New Yorkers in September rose by 19,900, seasonally adjusted, after having risen by 13,000 in August.
The City’s labor-force-participation rate (a measure of the number of New Yorkers working relative to the adult population) was 57.6 percent in September, an increase from 57.3 percent in August. The City’s labor-force-participation rate is 8.3 percentage points below the national average of 65.9 percent.
September Unemployment Rates by Borough
Within New York City on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the September unemployment rate of City residents was lowest in Queens, at 5.5 percent. It was highest in the Bronx at 8.8 percent. The second-highest unemployment rate was in Brooklyn at 7.6 percent, followed by 6.6 percent in Manhattan and 6.1 percent in Staten Island.
On a year-over-year basis, unemployment of City residents fell in all boroughs—by 1.8 percentage points in the Bronx, by 1.7 percentage points in Manhattan, by 1.6 percentage points in Brooklyn, by 1.4 percentage points in Staten Island, and by 1.3 percentage points in Queens.
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The numbers are reported according to the new North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaced the previous Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, as described at http://stats.bls.gov/sae/saenaics.htm.
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