New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. today issued his office's analysis and seasonal adjustment of September job numbers that were released by the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"September's job numbers are welcome news, as the City has gained 12,300 payroll jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Thompson. "This is significant, since it represents the largest one-month jobs gain since September 2000."

Thompson noted, however, that one month of job growth should be viewed with cautious optimism. "Only sustained job growth will mean that we are moving out of a recession."

The City's unemployment numbers, however, jumped to 8.8 percent, and remain a cause for concern.

Thompson reported that the unemployment rate increased, in part, due to a greater number of New Yorkers actively seeking work.

Gap with Nation's Year-Over-Year Job Loss Narrows in September

The gap between the percentage loss in New York City jobs compared with the percentage loss in the nation was 0.85 percentage points in September, 0.56 of a percentage point less than the August gap. The City's economy has lagged the nation's since March 2001, with the gap opening up significantly in September 2001. The U.S. recession has been officially declared over in November 2001, but the New York City recession has continued and the gap between the U.S. and New York City percentage job losses remains. This may be seen in Chart 1.

Chart 1. New York City Continues to Lag the Nation: Year-over-Year Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs, January 2000 to September 2003, U.S. and New York City

Since December 2000, New York City has lost 240,800 jobs, seasonally adjusted, of which 159,700 (or 66.3 percent, two-thirds) have been lost since September 2001.

Seasonally Adjusted Jobs Increased by 12,300 in September

Total jobs located in New York City increased by 12,300 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This gain was made up of a rise of 4,800 jobs in the private sector and 7,400 jobs in the government sector. Federal jobs fell by 200, but state jobs rose by 200 and local jobs - i.e., jobs in the City government and in independent local agencies like the MTA - up by 7,500.¹

All the private sectors gained jobs in September except for the trade, transportation and utility sectors, which lost 3,700 jobs and financial activities which lost 400 jobs. The most significant gains were in (1) professional and business services, which added 5,400 jobs (an annualized rate of gain of 12.9 percent), (2) leisure and hospitality, which added 1,200 jobs (an annualized rate of gain of 5.7 percent), and (3) education and health services, which added 900 jobs (an annualized rate of gain of 1.6 percent).

These numbers may be seen in Chart 2, which combines several related NAICS categories to simplify the analysis.

Chart 2. Change in New York City Jobs by NAICS Category, September 2003 Compared with August 2003, Seasonally Adjusted

Data Source: New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, revised series based on NAICS job categories. Percentage changes are annualized.
Unemployment Rate Jumped to 8.8% in September

The City's unemployment rate in September 2003, seasonally adjusted, jumped to 8.8 percent, 0.7 percentage points more than the 8.1 percent seen in August and the highest since 8.8 percent reported in February 2003. Between March and July of 2003, both civilian employment and unemployment fell, seasonally adjusted, suggesting a steady but low-volume migration of residents out of the City or out of the labor force. However, in September, the number of unemployed New Yorkers, seasonally adjusted, rose by 29,300 and the number of employed New Yorkers also rose, by 5,900.

The labor force participation rate increased to 57.7 percent in September from 57.3 percent in August. This rate is a measure of the number of New Yorkers working plus the number actively seeking work relative to the adult population. The corresponding U.S. figure in September 2003 was 66.1 percent.

This increase may indicate that some previously discouraged workers are now actively seeking work. However, it may also signal that not all the new jobs that have been created are going to City residents.

New York City's seasonally adjusted September unemployment rate of 8.8 percent is 2.7 percentage points higher than the nation's seasonally adjusted September unemployment rate of 6.1 percent.

Unemployment by Borough, September 2003 and Comparison with a Year Earlier

Within New York City, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the September unemployment rate of New York City residents was lowest in Queens at 7.0 percent. It was highest in the Bronx at 10.9 percent. Unemployment was second-highest at 9.5 percent in Brooklyn, followed by 8.5 percent in Manhattan and 7.7 percent in Staten Island.

On a year-over-year basis, the rate of unemployment of New York City residents rose by one percentage point. It rose by 1.7 percentage points in the Bronx, 1.4 percentage points in Staten Islands, 1.2 percentage points in Brooklyn, 0.8 percentage points in Queens, and 0.5 percentage points in Manhattan.

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