New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. today released
his office's analysis and seasonal adjustment of August job numbers
that were reported by the New York State Department of Labor and the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"July's numbers showed some improvement. Unfortunately, August
shows a seasonally adjusted loss of 13,000 payroll jobs indicating
that the improvement was not sustained," said Comptroller Thompson.
"The unemployment rate remained at 8.1 percent, as the number
both of employed and unemployed New York City residents rose, but
this is two full percentage points above the U.S. unemployment rate."
"Of particular concern is that the City accounted for 14 percent
of the 93,000 seasonally adjusted jobs the nation lost in August,."
Thompson said.1
Gap with Nation's Year-over-Year Job Loss Widens in August
The gap between the percentage loss in New York City jobs compared
with the percentage loss in the nation was 1.33 percentage points
in August, which was 0.21 of a percentage point greater than the
July gap. The City's economy has lagged the nation's since March
2001, with the gap opening up significantly in September 2001. The
U.S. recession was declared over as of November 2001. Unfortunately,
the New York City recession continues. The gap between the U.S.
and New York City percentage job losses narrowed until October 2002,
after which it has increased slightly as illustrated in Chart 1.
Chart 1. New York City Continues to Lag the Nation: Year-over-Year
Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs, January 2000 to August 2003, U.S.
and New York City
| |
NYC Y/Y CHANGE |
US Y/Y CHANGE |
DIFFERENCE NYC - US |
| January 03 |
-1.2% |
-0.2% |
-1.02% |
| February 03 |
-1.6% |
-0.2% |
-1.34% |
| March 03 |
-1.8% |
-0.3% |
-1.50% |
| April 03 |
-1.4% |
-0.2% |
-1.17% |
| May 03 |
-1.8% |
-0.3% |
-1.46% |
| June 03 |
-1.7% |
-0.4% |
-1.37% |
| July 03 |
-1.4% |
-0.3% |
-1.12% |
| August 03 |
-1.8% |
-0.4% |
-1.33% |
Data Source: Computations by the NYC Comptroller's
Office based on data from New York State Department of Labor and
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Y/Y = Year-over-Year.)
Since December 2000, New York City has lost 253,700 jobs, seasonally
adjusted, of which 174,200 (or 68.7 percent, more than two-thirds)
have been lost since September 2001.
Seasonally Adjusted Jobs Fell by 13,000 in August
Total jobs located in New York City fell by 13,000 on a seasonally
adjusted basis. This loss was made up of a loss of 11,100 jobs in
the private sector and 1,900 jobs in the government sector. Federal
jobs fell by 500, state jobs rose by 300 and local jobs - i.e.,
jobs in the City government and independent local agencies like
the MTA - fell by 1,800.2
Of the seasonally adjusted loss of 11,100 jobs in the private sector,
the most significant losses were in (1) manufacturing, which lost
3,900 jobs (an annualized rate of loss of 30.4 percent); (2) leisure
and hospitality, which lost 3,400 jobs (an annualized rate of loss
of 14.5 percent) and (3) professional and business services, which
lost 2,300 jobs (an annualized rate of loss of 5.1 percent).
These numbers may be seen in Chart 2, which combines several related
NAICS categories to simplify the analysis.
Chart 2. Change in New York City Jobs by NAICS Category, August
2003 Compared with July 2003, Seasonally Adjusted
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor
and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, revised series based on NAICS
job categories. Percentage changes are annualized.
Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 8.1% in August
The City's unemployment rate in August 2003, seasonally adjusted,
remained at 8.1 percent, but the underlying numbers have changed.
In the previous three months, both civilian employment and unemployment
fell, seasonally adjusted, suggesting a steady but low-volume migration
of residents out of the City or a rise in the number of discouraged
job seekers. In August, both numbers rose. The number of unemployed
New Yorkers, seasonally adjusted, rose by 2,900 and the number of
employed New Yorkers also rose, by 6,100.
The labor force participation rate held up in August at 57.3 percent,
a deterioration from the high of 65.6 in July 2002. This rate is
a measure of the number of New Yorkers working relative to the adult
population. The corresponding U.S. figure in August 2003 was 66.2
percent.
New York City's seasonally adjusted August unemployment rate of
8.1 percent is two percentage points higher than the nation's seasonally
adjusted August unemployment rate of 6.1 percent.
Unemployment by Borough, August 2003 and Comparison with a Year
Earlier
Within New York City, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the August
unemployment rate of New York City residents was lowest in Queens
at 6.6 percent. It was highest in the Bronx at 10 percent. Unemployment
was second highest at 9.1 percent in Brooklyn, followed by 7.7 percent
in Manhattan and in Staten Island.
On a year-over-year basis, unemployment of New York City residents
rose by 0.7 of a percentage point in the Bronx, 0.4 of a percentage
point in Staten Island and Brooklyn and 0.3 of a percentage point
in Queens. Unemployment fell in Manhattan, by 0.2 of a percentage
point.
1The numbers are
reported according to the new NAICS classifications. The North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS) replaces the previous Standard
Industrial Classification (SIC) codes that were developed in the 1930s
when manufacturing accounted for a far greater portion of U.S. jobs.
A full description of the NAICS data may be found at http://stats.bls.gov/sae/saenaics.htm.
2The components
do not add exactly because of rounding.
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