SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PAYROLL JOBS FALL 14,300
View economic Notes (pdf)

New York City's economy remained in decline during the first quarter of 2003, according to the latest issue of Economic Notes, a publication issued by the office of New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr.

"The City's economy continues to be weakened by the aftermath of September 11, and continuing uncertainties in the financial markets," Comptroller Thompson said. "Seasonally adjusted total payroll jobs fell by 14,300 in the first quarter of 2003, and the City's inflation rate increased to 3.2 percent in the first quarter, up from 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002."

The Gross City Product, a measure of economic activity in New York City, fell at an estimated annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2003, compared with a decline of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002, based on preliminary data. In comparison, the national economy grew by 1.4 percent in both the first quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2002.

Comptroller Thompson noted "The decline in GCP has placed the City in its ninth consecutive quarter of negative real growth. Clearly, this is still a difficult time for the City, but it is a challenge over which we can and must prevail."

The latest issue of Economic Notes reports the following New York City data:

· Payroll Jobs in 1Q03, seasonally adjusted, fell by 14,300. Compared with 1Q02 (not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations), jobs fell 1.5 percent, the fourth-weakest performance of the 20 largest metropolitan areas, after San Francisco, Boston and Detroit.

· Personal Income Tax (PIT) revenues, a proxy for personal incomes, rose 0.6 percent in 1Q03 over 1Q02. Estimated taxes decreased 31.4 percent, reflecting lower dividends and capital gains. Withholding taxes increased 1.6 percent. U.S. PIT revenues rose 0.9 percent in 1Q03.

· The Inflation Rate in the NYC metropolitan area was 3.2 percent in 1Q03, up from 3.1 percent in 1Q02. This is the seventh-highest rate among the 14 largest metropolitan areas.

· The Unemployment Rate in NYC, seasonally adjusted, rose to 8.6 percent in 1Q03. More than 100,000 fewer New Yorkers had jobs in the first quarter of 2003 than in the fourth quarter of 2002. However, the U.S. unemployment rate, also seasonally adjusted, fell to 5.8 percent in 1Q03, from 5.9 percent in 4Q02.

· Leading Indicators for the City were mixed. The Help-Wanted Ads Index dropped to 13.6 in 1Q03, the lowest in more than 50 years. The number of building permits remained flat in 1Q03 from 1Q02.

Summary Table: Five Key Economic Indicators, NYC and U.S., 1Q03

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