| New York City
Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. today released his office’s
analysis and seasonal adjustments of jobs numbers based on the revised
unadjusted data released March 13 by the New York State Department
of Labor. The revised data are based on the new reporting categories
required by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS,
pronounced nakes).
"The new data show that the combination of the recession and
the effects of 9/11 have resulted in job losses during 2002 that
were even worse than previously reported," said Comptroller
Thompson. "We now know that there were 36,100 fewer jobs in
the City in 2002. This additional information reflects the depth
of the City’s current economic difficulties."
City Payrolls Lost 148,600 Jobs from 2000 to 2002, a Loss
of 36,100 More than Previously Reported
The new NAICS-based data show a two-year loss in New York City
jobs from 2000 to 2002 of 148,600 jobs. The City averaged 3,723,100
jobs in 2000, but this fell to 3,574,500 jobs in 2002. The falloff
of 148,600 jobs over the last two years is the combination of average
year losses of 31,100 in 2001 and 117,500 in 2002.
The month-over-month seasonally adjusted figures show that most
of the losses have occurred since 9/11. In August 2001, the City
was just 100 jobs short of 3.7 million. In September, jobs fell
to 3,681,500. By December 2002, the City had lost 138,900 jobs based
on monthly data, which is 13,400 more jobs lost since 9/11 than
was previous assumed. The impact of 9/11 was substantially more
serious than was previously reported in State and Federal statistics.
Within the total jobs numbers, the private-sector job figures show
similar patterns. The total loss of jobs between 2000 and 2002,
using annual averages of monthly data, was 147,300. This loss was
divided between 27,000 jobs lost from 2000 to 2001 and 120,300 jobs
lost from 2001 to 2002.
The North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS)
The revised data are based on the new reporting categories
required by the North American Industry Classification System.
The previous Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes
were developed in the 1930s when manufacturing accounted for
a far greater portion of U.S. jobs. The SIC codes were last
revised in 1987.
The NAICS categories are based on a production-function concept,
emphasizing new and emerging industries and service industries.
They also allow for comparability with Canadian and Mexican
jobs data. The NAICS structure has 20 basic sectors, compared
with the 10 SIC code industry sectors and near 1,200 U.S.
industries. (A full description of the NAICS data may
be found in a PowerPoint presentation by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics at http://stats.bls.gov/sae/saenaics.htm.)
The NAICS series cannot be compared directly with the SIC
code series, because definitions have changed. For example,
a new category of "management" includes establishments
such as corporate headquarters offices that are primarily
in the business of managing other establishments. This category
is subtracted from the industry total with which the management
employees were previously associated. Similarly, the former
"finance, insurance and real estate" (FIRE) sector
has been eliminated and two categories have replaced it –
“Finance and Insurance” and “Real Estate
and Rental and Leasing.”
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New York City Jobs Lag the Nation Since March 2001, Year
over Year
Based on the revised data using the North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS), New York City jobs have lagged the nation since
March 2001, with the gap opening up significantly in September 2001
and narrowing a year later, as may be seen in Chart 1.
Chart 1. New York City Continues to Lag the
Nation, Year-over-Year Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs, January
2000 through January 2003, United States and New York City.
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Revised Series based on the North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS) job categories, March 13,
2003. The jobs data are ultimately based on Unemployment Insurance
filings by establishments.
January Seasonally Adjusted NAICS Jobs Up by 7,500, but
5,600 Are in Government
Starting with the revised series, the NAICS categories
in the future will be used instead of the old manufacturing -based
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes.
Using the new data with seasonal adjustments by the Comptroller’s
Office, January 2003 jobs were up by 7,500. But 5,600 of these jobs
were in government and 4,800 of the additional jobs were in local
government, although the City's official employee headcount (not
adjusted for seasonal factor) fell 1,304 in January. The nominal
discrepancy could be due to seasonal factors, or differences in
accounting for part-time employees or differences in the timing
of the headcount and the Unemployment Insurance filings. The seasonally
adjusted job numbers may be seen in Chart 2, which combines several
related NAICS categories to simplify the analysis that follows.
“While we are pleased to see some job growth, we are concerned
about the job losses in the categories that will be needed to support
the City’s return to prosperity,” said Thompson.
Chart 2. Change in New York City Jobs by NAICS
Category, January 2003 Compared with December 2002, Seasonally Adjusted
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Revised Series based on NAICS job categories,
March 13, 2003. The jobs are ultimately based on Unemployment Insurance
filings by establishments.
As Chart 2 illustrates, the key areas of information
and professional and business service shed a total of 13,700 jobs
in the month compared with December, seasonally adjusted. On the
bright side, three areas in the private sector grew a total of 12,600
jobs – trade, transportation and utilities; education and
health services; and leisure and hospitality. Also, the highly paid
financial activities sector added 1,800 jobs.
January Unemployment of 8.6% is 2.9 Percentage Points above
Nation
As previously reported by the Comptroller and others, unemployment
in January 2003, seasonally adjusted, rose to 8.6 percent, up from
8.5 percent in December 2002. The 8.6 percent rate is the highest
rate for the City since February 1998, when it was 8.7 percent.
New York City's January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of
8.6 percent is 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the nation's
5.7 percent.
Unemployment by Borough, January and Comparison with Year
Earlier
Within New York City, on a nonseasonally adjusted basis, the January
unemployment rate was highest in the Bronx at 11.1 percent and lowest
in Queens at 7.6 percent. Unemployment was 9.9 percent in Brooklyn,
9.0 percent in Manhattan and 7.7 percent in Staten Island.
On a year-over-year basis, unemployment rose the most in the Bronx,
a 2.4 percentage-point increase from 8.7 percent in January 2002
to 11.1 percent in January 2003. The next-highest increase was 1.8
percentage points in Staten Island, from 5.9 percent in January
2002 to 7.7 percent in January 2003. Brooklyn's unemployment rate
rose by 1.5 percentage points and Queens’ by 1.0 percentage
point.
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