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SMALL THIRD-QUARTER ECONOMIC DECLINE
PAYROLL JOBS FALL BY 2,000
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New York City remained in recession during the third quarter of
2002, according to the latest issue of Economic Notes, a publication
issued by the office of Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. The
gross city product, a measure of economic activity in New York City,
fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter, due to a decline in payroll
jobs and flat real incomes. In comparison, the national economy
grew by 4.0 percent, its second-best growth in the last nine quarters.
Since the first quarter of 2001 the nation has averaged 3.4 percent
annualized real GDP growth while the City has averaged a 1.6 percent
GCP decline, a difference of 5.0 percent.
"While the nation continues to experience economic growth,
New York City is in its seventh consecutive quarter of negative
real growth," said Thompson. "Payroll jobs fell by 2,000
in the third quarter, of which 1,100 were in the private sector.
Moreover, the inflation rate increased to 2.6 in the third quarter
from 2.2 percent in the second quarter. This is the fourth-highest
rate among the 14 largest metropolitan areas. The continuation of
this recession will only increase the burden on our budget."
The latest issue of Economic Notes also reports the following New
York City economic data:
- Payroll Jobs in 3Q02, seasonally adjusted, fell by 2,000
or 0.2 percent. Private jobs fell by 1,100. Compared with 3Q01,
not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, jobs fell 2.3 percent,
the fourth-weakest performance among the 20 largest metropolitan
areas.
- Personal Income Tax (PIT) revenues, a proxy for personal
incomes, increased 2.5 percent in 3Q02 over 3Q01. Estimated taxes
decreased 3.6 percent, reflecting lower dividends and capital
gains. Withholding taxes increased 4.7 percent. (NOTE: When making
year-to-year comparisons with FY 2002, the impact of 9/11 affected
the level and timing of receipts since the City allowed for the
extension of filing dates in the months following the attack on
the World Trade Center.)
- The Inflation Rate in the NYC metropolitan area was 2.6
percent in 3Q02, up from 2.2 percent in 2Q02. This is the fourth-highest
rate among the 14 largest metropolitan areas.
- The Unemployment Rate in NYC, seasonally adjusted, fell
to 7.5 percent in 3Q02. The U.S. unemployment rate, also seasonally
adjusted, fell to 5.7 percent in 3Q02 from 5.9 percent in 2Q02.
- Leading Indicators for the City were mixed. The Help-Wanted
Ads Index dropped to 20.3 in 3Q02, the lowest in more than 50
years. But the number of building permits rose 16.3 percent in
3Q02 from 3Q01.
Summary Table. Five Key Economic Indicators, NYC and U.S.,
3Q02
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1. GCP/GDP
Growth, SAAR
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2. Payroll-Jobs
Growth, SA
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3. Personal-Income-Tax
Growth, NSA
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4. Inflation Rate,
NSA
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5. Unemployment Rate,
SA
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NYC
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-0.1% B
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-0.2% W
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+2.5% B
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2.6% W
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7.5% B
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J.S.
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+4.0% B
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+0.5% B
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+11.0% B
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1.6% B
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5.7% B
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| B=Better than prior period. N=No change.
W=Worse. Indicators 1, 2, 5 compare 3Q02 with 2Q02;
indicators 3-4 compare 3Q02 with 3Q01. See Charts 1,
3, 7, 10, and 11. NSA=Not Seasonally Adjusted. SA= Seasonally
Adjusted. SAAR=SA Annualized Rate. |
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