Unemployment Jumps To 7.8%, Highest Rate Since June

New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. announced today that seasonally adjusted jobs in the City fell by 12,300, based on preliminary October data. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 5,900 jobs were lost in the private sector and a 6,400 job loss was attributable to declines in government payrolls.

"The unemployment rate rose from 7.1 percent in September to 7.8 percent in October," Thompson said. "This is extremely distressing since it demonstrates that the City's economy still lags after seven consecutive quarters of recession. It should be noted that, compared to last year, the decline in jobs in the City on a percentage basis is three times greater than the rate for the country as a whole."

From the jobs peak of 3,753,800 in December 2000, the City has lost 151,800 seasonally adjusted jobs, of which a net of 104,200 - or 68.6 percent - have been lost since September 2001. For the ten months of 2002, a net of 21,700 jobs have been lost on a net basis.

Based on a seasonally adjusted household survey, 13,200 fewer New Yorkers were working in October.

New York City Payroll Jobs (People Working in the City)

Based on preliminary numbers, total jobs located in New York City fell by 12,300 in October, on a seasonally adjusted basis, primarily because of a 6,100-job loss in the City Government and independent local government agencies such as the MTA. Jobs fell by 100 in Federal agencies and by 200 in State agencies. Based on preliminary data, private-sector jobs located in New York City, seasonally adjusted, fell by 5,900 between September and October. These numbers are based on unadjusted preliminary data for October released by the New York State Department of Labor that are seasonally adjusted by the Comptroller's Office.

The Department of Labor also released revised numbers for September 2002. Previously reported preliminary data for September showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 700 jobs over August, but this number was revised downward to show a gain of 500 jobs.

Civilian Employment (Residents with Jobs, Based on Household Survey)

The New York City unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted by the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose to 7.8 percent in October from 7.1 percent in September. The May and June unemployment rate of 8.0 percent was the highest monthly rate since May 1998.

Civilian employment (the number of City residents with jobs), also seasonally adjusted by the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, fell by 13,200 in October. The month-to-month fall in the October employment of NYC residents was accompanied by a sharp rise, 22,900 people, in the number of NYC residents who are unemployed (i.e., NYC residents not working but looking for work). The labor force rose by 9,800 people.

Monthly Year-over-Year Changes

Year-over-year comparisons of monthly job losses since October 2001 show that the decline in New York City jobs is three times as great, percentage-wise, than it is in the nation, as shown in Chart A. The number of jobs located in New York City in October was down 1.2 percent from September 2001. Nationally, jobs in October declined by only 0.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Chart A. Monthly Payroll-Jobs Growth, NYC and the U.S., Year-over-Year, Percent Change, January 2000-October 2002

Data Source: NYS and U.S. Departments of Labor. October 2002 data are preliminary; September 2002 data are revised.

Industry-by-Industry Job Numbers

As discussed earlier, the City's overall loss of 12,300 jobs in October is the net of a 6,400-job loss in government jobs and a 5,900-job loss in the private sector. The private-sector job loss reflects a net of gains and losses in the private industry sectors. Specifically, jobs fell by 1,200 in manufacturing, by 1,400 in transportation and public utilities, by 2,100 in trade, by 1,400 in the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sector, and by 100 in the large services category. The only broad category to show a growth in jobs was construction, which rose by 300 jobs. This is shown in Chart B.

Chart B. October Payroll Jobs, Preliminary Data, Change from September, Seasonally Adjusted


Source: Unadjusted data from the NYS Department of Labor. Seasonal adjustment by the NYC Comptroller's Office using ARIMA X-12 algorithm with 30 years of historical data.

Borough Employment (Borough Residents Working or Looking for Work)

Borough employment data are not seasonally adjusted and are based on a relatively small sample of households in each borough. (Payroll jobs for October are not yet available by borough.)

The October numbers, which are based on place of residence rather than place of work and are not seasonally adjusted, show that unemployment was highest in the Bronx, at 10 percent, up from 8.2 percent in October 2001. The next-highest unemployment rate was in Brooklyn, at 8.7 percent, up from 7.6 percent in the same month a year ago. Manhattan's unemployment rate was in the middle of the five boroughs, 7.7 percent (up from 7.0 percent a year earlier). The Queens unemployment rate was 6.6 percent (up from 5.8 percent in October 2001). The lowest unemployment rate was in Staten Island, 5.9 percent in October (up from 5.2 percent in October 2001).

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